The Mathematical Mechanics of Investment Returns: Point-to-Point CAGR vs. Multi-Period Newton-Raphson XIRR
In portfolio analytics, measuring return is not a trivial arithmetic exercise. A simple average return fails due to volatility drag; point-to-point CAGR fails when additional capital is deposited mid-tenure; and internal rate of return requires numerical root-finding algorithms. Below is the full mathematical foundation of return metrics.
1. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Formula
CAGR represents the geometric mean growth rate that dampens annual volatility spikes, answering the question: "What constant annual rate would yield this ending balance from this initial investment?"
Vfinal = Terminal asset value at horizon end.
Vinitial = Beginning investment principal.
t = Holding period in years.
2. The Newton-Raphson Numerical Root-Finding for XIRR
When an investor makes multiple SIP deposits, dividend withdrawals, or lump-sum top-ups at irregular calendar dates, CAGR cannot be computed directly. Instead, we solve for the rate r where the Net Present Value (NPV) of all cash flows equals zero:
Ci = Cash flow amount at transaction index i.
di − d0 = Number of elapsed days since initial transaction date.
r = The annualized internal rate of return solved via iterative derivatives.